Ribal Al-Assad discusses Syria and Middle East with World Affairs Councils in Washington D.C.

Thursday, 12 November 2015 11 more image(s) »

ODFS Director Ribal Al-Assad today gave the keynote address to the World Affairs Councils of America in Washington, D.C. The World Affairs Councils of America is the largest non-profit grassroots organization in the United States dedicated to educating and engaging Americans on global issues with nearly 100 councils across 40 states reaching more than half a million people a year.

Ribal also participated in the panel titled "The New Map of the Middle East," alongside the following speakers: Dennis Ross (Distinguished Fellow, Washington Institute for Near East Policy), Thomas J. Lippman (journalist and author), Bayan Sami Abdul Rahman (Kurdistan Regional Government Representative of the United States), andThomas McNamara.

Other panels included:

"Security Challenges Facing the West", with the following participants: Eugene Czolij (President, Ukrainian World Congress); John F. Harris (Editor in Chief, POLITICO); David O'Sullivan (Ambassador, Delegation of the European Union to the United States); Andras Simonyi (Managing Director, Centre of Transatlantic Relations), Frank A. Rose (Assistant Secretary for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance, US Department of State).

"The Arctic: Challenges and Opportunities", with the following participants: Kare Aas (Ambassador of Norway to the United States), Gregory Kallenberg (Director, Producer, Rational Middle East Series), Gwen Pamela Holdman (Director, Alaska Centre for Energy and Power); Julia L. Gourley (Senior Arctic Official, US Department of State), Rear Admiral Jonathan W. White (Oceanographer and Navigator, US Navy).

In his speech, which can be found below, Ribal spoke about the situation in Syria and the broader politics of the Middle East.

Thank you …

… and good morning, ladies and gentlemen.

I'd like to thank the World Affairs Councils of America for the kind invitation to speak to you today …

… at this very important and exciting conference.

I have been asked to speak about the current crisis in Syria …

… and afterwards I look forward to joining the panel discussing 'the new map of the Middle East' …

… and hearing from the other, estimable speakers.

I'm sure I don't have to tell you that the situation in Syria and the broader politics of the Middle East are intimately connected …

… and that both have grave implications for the national security of the United States …

… and indeed the rest of the world …

… because although the regional character of the Syrian crisis has been obvious for some time …

… it also has increasingly clear global repercussions.

I will go onto explain how regional power dynamics inflamed what began as a merely national confrontation between the Syrian regime and its opponents …

… transforming it into a bloody sectarian proxy war.

The greatest danger now facing us is the possibility of this escalating into a proxy war between global powers …

… but it is my sincere hope that this danger can be averted …

… and that instead the international community can come together to confront our common enemy …

… namely Islamist terrorism.

That will be the first step in bringing lasting peace to my country and the wider region …

… so that its people can begin their journey to true freedom and democracy.

Now, as you know, in recent weeks, Russia has taken on a far more active role …

… intervening directly to support the Syrian regime with over a thousand air strikes so far …

… and of course to a lesser extent the US and its allies too have been involved in launching

air strikes to support mostly Kurdish fighters against Islamic State …

… though not nearly enough to be effective, especially when you compare with the number of strikes in Afghanistan and Iraq.

During the 2003 Iraq war, the US and its allies conducted 800 airstrikes a day …

… but in the current conflict, there were barely more than 7,000 in the year from last October to this October (!)

That's less than a fortieth of the intensity in Iraq!

Until recently, the US and Russia have taken directly opposing positions on the regime …

… but they certainly have a common enemy in Islamic State …

… and indeed one thing most of the international community can agree on, is that these

barbaric Islamists must be stopped.

The Russians have long been convinced that the only way to do this is to keep the present Syrian regime in power …

… fearing that its fall would allow jihadists to seize control of the whole country …

… while the US and its allies at first were adamant that the president must go …

… though they are now increasingly willing to consider a transitional period to allow for stability.

For my part, I have been a vocal opponent of the Syrian regime since long before the conflict started …

… which is why I have been in exile for most of my life …

… and why I founded the Organisation for Democracy and Freedom in Syria …

… but I have always maintained that there must be a political, diplomatic and all-inclusive transition to democracy in my country.

The difficulty, as I'm sure many of you already know, is that within Syria itself, the forces of

democracy have been marginalised for many years …

… and anti-regime forces have been dominated by Islamists.

There are many different Islamist groups operating in Syria …

… of which Islamic State is only the leading brand …

… and they share the same poisonous ideology.

Indeed, the irony is that they understand all too well that they are on one side …

… and the international community is on the other …

… regardless of the differences between the US and Russia, for example.

Al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri has called on his fellow ideologues of all factions to unite against their non-Islamist foes in Syria.

As Zawahri sees it, and I quote from a recording he posted on the internet …

… "The Americans, Russians, Iranians, Alawites, and Hezbollah are coordinating their war

against us …

… are we not capable of stopping the fighting amongst ourselves so we can direct all our

efforts against them?"

We may not think of ourselves as being on the same side as the Russians …

… let alone the Iranians (!) …

… but it is quite true that in the context of Syria, we have a common interest in defeating the

Islamists …

… so should we not be coordinating our efforts?

Remember, slaughter and destruction is not 'collateral damage' for the Islamists …

… it is deliberate and ideologically motivated …

… and it will not stop until they are defeated.

Moreover, until that time, they will continue to threaten us all.

But before I go on to talk about how the international community must respond today and

tomorrow to the crisis in Syria …

… and how it affects our own national security …

… let me look back to yesterday …

… and how this situation came about.

As you all know, the present conflict began in 2011 with a series of protests against the

regime …

… which were widely interpreted at the time in the context of the so-called Arab Spring.

Indeed, many Syrians were crying out for freedom and democracy …

… but sadly their voices were soon drowned out by those with a very different agenda.

That is why, to this day, the overwhelming majority of so-called opposition forces are in fact

Islamists …

… committed not to freedom and democracy …

… but to sectarian bloodshed and the imposition of brutal sharia law.

And let me add that their ambitions are not limited to Syria.

Islamism is a global movement committed to establishing an Islamic Caliphate not only in the Middle East …

… but from Andalucía in Spain to Xinjiang in China.

So how was a movement for freedom and democracy in my country hijacked by jihadists with no respect for freedom or for democratic sovereignty?

The answer is that powerful regional players intervened …

… and are effectively fighting a proxy war on Syrian soil.

As I'm sure you know, the major rivalry in the Middle East is between Iran on one side and the

Gulf states and Turkey on the other …

… and all are deeply involved in the Syrian conflict …

… using the sectarian divide between Sunni and Shia Muslims to further their own interests.

One reason for the involvement of the Gulf states is that they were worried about the

domino effect of the Arab Spring …

… so they made sure that extremist elements dominated the Syrian opposition from 2011…

… and used jihadist television stations to foment sectarian war rather than democratic change.

And the Gulf states and Turkey alike believed that fomenting sectarian conflict In Syria would bring down the regime in a matter of months …

… thereby isolating Iran …

… and putting a stop to its nuclear programme.

Clearly this gambit failed!

Now Iran has signed its nuclear deal with the US, it is in a way becoming a partner of the West …

… and with the lifting of sanctions it is able to release the funds it needs to further the strategy it has been pursuing since the invasion of Iraq …

… which effectively handed Iran control of most of that country.

It is also now able to pay for Russia's intervention in Syria …

… which has also allowed the Iranians themselves to deploy more ground troops there.

It should also be noted that, while international observers have speculated that Iran's intervention in Syria was about securing the nuclear programme …

… if anything, the reverse is true.

The nuclear programme, like the intervention in Syria, is only a means to an end …

… namely Iran's long-term aspiration to dominate the Middle East from the Gulf to

the Mediterranean.

And ironically, the rise of Salafi extremism since the Arab Spring has only helped Iran …

… since minorities throughout the region have heard the hateful sectarian rhetoric on satellite TV and other media owned by the Gulf states …

… and they have seen, often in explicit footage on YouTube and so on …

… the wholesale slaughter of minority groups, whether Christians, Alawites, Kurds, Shias, Druze, Ismailis, Yazidis …

… not to mention the suffering of the peaceful majority of the Sunnis who do not share the Islamists' poisonous ideology!

So no wonder those minorities now look to Iran as their only hope of protection.

It is a role the Iranians are only too happy to take up.

While they still deny having a fighting force in Syria, it has been reported that thousands of Iranian marines have joined the Russian forces fighting the Syrian rebels …

… while other reports suggest that Iran is supporting thousands more Shia militiamen from

Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere …

… and of course, Iranian-backed Hezbollah forces from Lebanon are openly involved in the fighting.

I hope by now it is clear that all this is ultimately the unintended consequence of Saudi Arabia and Qatar channelling billions of dollars and later arms to Islamist groups in Syria …

… and of Turkey's efforts to ensure the Syrian opposition was dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood …

… so where was the democratic world when the seeds of this catastrophe were sown in 2011?

In fact, then US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, along with other Western countries, even

recognised the Brotherhood-dominated Syrian National Council …

… and it took Mrs Clinton 18 months to realise it did not represent the Syrian people …

… by which time, Islamist fighters were tearing Syria apart.

As late as September 2013, new Secretary of State John Kerry claimed at a Senate Foreign

Relations Committee meeting that there was “no” al-Qaeda presence in Syria …

… long after its presence had been established beyond doubt.

Even in 2012, the US Director of National Intelligence James Clapper described the

opposition as fractured, “not a national movement” …

… and infiltrated by al-Qaeda …

… and General Dempsey said clearly that none of the rebel groups share ‘our’ interests.

Also in 2013, Secretary of Justice Eric Holder confirmed that the Free Syrian Army is dominated by the al Qaeda ideology …

… and General Lloyd Austin III warned, "The conflict in Syria cannot and will not be resolved militarily" …

… and warned that, "left unchecked, the spread of violence and terrorist activity emanating from Syria could result in a long, drawn out conflict …

… that extends from Beirut to Damascus to Baghdad to Yemen.”

But tragically, the lessons have still not been learnt.

On 24 October, US Secretary of State John Kerry met King Salman …

… and agreed to increase support to Syria's supposedly 'moderate' opposition …

… an entity Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov rightly describes as a 'phantom group' …

… whose whereabouts nobody has been able to locate (!)

Indeed, such is the desperation in some quarters to find suitable allies among the Syrian

rebels that some argue the West should back Jabhat Al Nusra …

… the Syrian affiliate of al-Qaeda (!)

Some believe that if the Nusra Front can be persuaded to undergo a rebrand …

… then suddenly they will be suitable allies for the democratic world (!)

Even General Petraeus has recently suggested using al-Nusra to fight Islamic State …

… as if there are somehow “good Islamists” and “bad Islamists” …

… good terrorists and bad terrorists (!)

Because let's not forget that it was Al-Qaeda, not Islamic State …

… who were responsible for 9/11, 7/7 and the Madrid bombing.

Al-Nusra's leader Abu Mohammed Al Jolani was recently interviewed on Qatar's al-Jazeera

news station …

… and tried to portray al Nusra as a moderate Syrian opposition movement …

… but in fact he only revealed how poisonous he and his co-ideologues are.

He reassured religious minorities that the group would treat them as “brothers” …

… if they distanced themselves from the Assad regime …

… prevented their children from joining the Syrian military …

… and abandoned their “deviant” religious beliefs (!)

This is the group our ally Qatar wants us to support …

… so Sir Malcolm Rifkind, the former chair of the UK Parliament’s Intelligence and Security Committee was right to point out Qatar's role in promoting terrorism …

… and insist they 'must choose their friends or live with the consequences' …

… but where are those consequences?

As for Saudi Arabia, despite supposedly being a friend to the democratic world, the kingdom's own political culture is deeply Islamist.

Last month, 55 Saudi clerics published a statement calling on all Muslims to join the jihad

against the Syrian regime and Iran …

… and claiming that the war was being waged by “the Orthodox crusader Russia” against the

Muslims.

The Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia has called for the demolition of all churches in the Arabian peninsula …

… and endorsed a Muslim Brotherhood leader's call for all Sunnis to take up arms and fight the infidels Shias and Alawites.

Moreover, the WikiLeaks cables revealed that individuals and institutions in Saudi Arabia

have pumped millions of dollars into Islamist religious trusts and NGOs …

… from Europe to India …

… and Saudi officials had high-level contacts with America’s most deadly adversary in

Afghanistan, the Haqqani network.

Finally, I mentioned that Turkey was involved from the very beginning of the crisis in Syria.

It sees Syria as the natural place to extend its influence south into the Arab world …

… cutting off Iran and sealing Turkey's own role as the champion of the Sunnis throughout

the Middle East…

… effectively rebuilding the Ottoman Empire …

… and just as the Gulf states do, it sees Islamism as a tool to be manipulated for its own ends.

So the Islamist threat is not just about what Islamic State and other militants are doing in my country …

… as horrific as that is …

… it is also being used very deliberately by our so-called allies …

… which is why we must urgently rethink our geopolitical alliances and priorities.

All the more so because as well as a regional dimension, the Syrian crisis also has increasingly grave global implications …

… since Russia is backing the regime along with Iran …

… and the West is still implicitly backing the states who oppose the regime.

And I'm afraid to say the Western strategy has been flawed from the beginning.

The Obama administration more or less admitted this when it announced a $500m

programme to create a new moderate rebel force in Syria …

… after concluding that its half-hearted efforts backing existing forces over the past 4-5 years have had practically no impact …

… and realising that even supposedly vetted fighters turned out to be Islamists who have ended up handing over their weapons to the likes of al-Nusra (!)

And now after just a few months, the administration has abandoned this programme too …

… having realised that after so many years of allowing our supposed allies to promote sectarianism …

… and to incite hatred, violence and killing against minorities and all those who do not share their perverted ideology …

… it is simply too late to create an all-inclusive national force from scratch (!)

So yet again, weapons ended up in the hands of Islamists.

After all these failures, I find it incredible that some Western observers have the audacity to criticise the Russians for bombing our supposedly moderate rebels (!)

Some people even still invoke the name of the so-called Free Syrian Army …

… whose Supreme Military Council was in fact exclusively Salafi …

… and which in any case imploded after the Saudis learned about the US rapprochement with Iran, and ordered their people to leave and form the Army of Islam …

… taking US weapons with them and killing many non-Salafi leaders (!)

Now, if the West had moved early on in the conflict to take a lead by fostering a genuine democratic opposition …

… by calling a conference for all democratic groups who would sign up to the ideals of equality regardless of religion, ethnicity, gender and so on …

… it would by definition have excluded Islamists from the very start …

… and there might now have been democratic opposition forces worthy of the name.

Instead, our so-called allies were allowed to take the initiative, as I have described …

… inciting sectarian hatred and calling for jihad …

… and we have seen the results.

Our priority now must be to ensure the defeat of the Islamists …

… which is why I believe the US and Russia must work together in Syria.

So while Marine General Joseph Dunford and Air Force secretary Deborah James have both

described Russia as the biggest threat to US national security, I respectfully differ …

… and agree instead with Michael Morell, the former Deputy Director of the CIA …

… who said the single biggest threat to US national security is extremists returning from

Syria.

And of course, the bigger picture is that Russia has increasingly close ties to China …

… in no small part because both feel threatened by the West …

… and have been pushed together by their sense of isolation from the West.

So this issue cannot be understood in isolation from Sino-US relations …

… particularly in the context of American plans to sail ships in the waters between Vietnam

and the Philippines …

… signalling that it does not recognise China’s territorial claims there …

… and fuelling Chinese fears that the US is practising a policy of encirclement.

That's why we should be extremely cautious about allowing the Syrian conflict to become a

"proxy war" between the US and its allies on one side and Russia and China on the other …

… a danger that has already been raised by Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.

Fortunately President Obama responded by insisting this would not be allowed to happen.

He told a White House press conference, “That would be bad strategy on our part.”

He can say that again (!)

In fact, the US has a clear strategic interest in working alongside Russia to ensure Islamic State, Al Nusra and all who share their perverted ideology are defeated …

... because they pose a far greater threat to US national security than Russia does …

… and one we share with the Russians and the Chinese.

Indeed, China faces a particular threat from Islamists in Xinjiang …

… and has warned Turkey that if it continues to support them, China will support Kurdish rebels in Turkey …

… but I'm sure we'd all prefer China to be involved in a coordinated international effort to defeat terrorism.

President Putin himself has explained his involvement in Syria in terms of the estimated 5,000

to 7,000 Russians and other Central Asians now fighting with the Islamists …

… and he rightly said, “We certainly cannot allow them to use the experience they are getting

in Syria on home soil”.

US defence secretary Ashton Carter has predicted reprisal attacks on Russian soil over its

actions in Syria …

… and indeed we now know the crash of a Russian plane over Egypt was caused by a

terrorist bomb …

… but the point is that we can all expect such attacks even if we don't intervene.

The problem is not going to disappear because we try to ignore it (!)

China's special envoy for the Middle East, Ambassador Wu Sike, has spoken of the same danger, arguing

that …

… "After being immersed in extremist ideas, when they return home they will pose a severe

challenge and security risk".

The CIA and UN estimate is that there are a total of 15,000 foreign fighters in Syria and Iraq.

But Attorney General Eric Holder has said there are around 7,000 fighters from the West

alone …

… which would leave only 8,000 from other Arab and Muslim countries!

And logically, there must be far more fighters from Arab and Muslim countries than

Western ones.

The population is poorer, the governments have less sophisticated surveillance technology

and infrastructure …

… and there are a lot more mosques and clerics who are funded by some of our allies in the

Gulf countries to recruit people.

So the number of fighters from the Middle East must be at least ten times higher than the

number from Europe.

A Syrian report last year estimated that in total there are almost 54,000 foreign combatants

from 87 different countries …

… and given the international character of those involved, there is a clear danger of yet more

attacks beyond the region …

… with terrorists potentially entering Europe in the guise of refugees.

Given the huge numbers of refugees today, it will not be easy to screen people effectively …

… because in fact it's hard enough to keep track of our own citizens who are going to join the

Islamists in Syria and Iraq.

People from the West who have fought with Islamic State have been known to post related images on Facebook or videos on YouTube …

… and in other cases young people's parents have reported them to the police …

… but in the case of foreign refugees, none of these sources of information are available …

… and it is hard to tell if people are even from Syria.

That is another reason that the EU now wants to talk to the Syrian regime …

… because at least they have a better idea of who the refugees are and which ones may

pose a threat.

As well as rooting out existing terrorists, though, we also need to clamp down on Islamism as an ideology …

… to prevent them from simply recruiting more fighters to replace them …

… and that means stamping out the most dangerous breeding grounds for this hateful perversion of Islam …

… on the internet, satellite TV stations and every other form of media …

… through which Islamists can recruit people from their own bedrooms.

The UK government has recently announced an exemplary new strategy to tackle the

promotion of Islamism.

It includes banning radical preachers from posting material online …

… and prevents anyone with convictions for extremist activity from working with children.

'Extremism disruption orders' will stop individuals engaging in extremist behaviour …

… premises used to support extremism will be shut down …

… and internet service providers will be forced do more to remove extremist material and

identify those responsible for it.

As Prime Minister Cameron says, "It's no good leaving this simply to the police or the

intelligence services …

… it's no good simply talking about violent extremism.

We need to confront all extremism".

This is exactly what I have been saying for many years …

… but for too long it fell on deaf ears.

As British foreign secretary Philip Hammond admitted just a couple of weeks ago …

… "In the UK, we've been too reluctant in the past to recognise the link between non-violent

extremism and violent extremism."

Western countries have also been too reluctant to confront our so-called allies about their role

in promoting this extremism.

After all, it is all very well to take measures to protect Western citizens from radicalisation …

… but unless we go after the source of radicalisation, there is little point.

And what I have told you about this is not news, but is well-known!

Bernard Squarcini, a previous Head of France's counter-espionage and counter-terrorism Intelligence agency, has pointed to Saudi Intelligence supporting extremist groups from Afghanistan to Lebanon …

… and Syria to Egypt to Mali…

… and the former Head of French Interior Intelligence, Yves Bonnet has accused both Qatar and Saudi Arabia of funding extremist Islamist networks in France.

Just over a year ago, looking back at the conflict so far, US Vice-President Joe Biden told

students at Harvard University, ‘Our allies in the region were our largest problem in Syria’ …

… and explained as I just have that they had effectively started a ‘proxy Sunni-Shia war’ in

their determination to bring down the Syrian regime …

… deliberately cultivating groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, al-Nusra, Islamic State and others.

It was later reported that the vice president subsequently apologised even for raising the issue of our allies' complicity with such groups ...

… but it is ridiculous that the most powerful country in the world should be apologising for telling the truth (!)

We must name and shame individuals and states who are responsible for spreading

extremism …

… and we must ensure that counter-extremism strategies like that unveiled by the British

government are rolled out not only throughout the West …

… but perhaps even more importantly throughout the Middle East.

And that means insisting that our allies …

… including Turkey and the Gulf states …

… play their part in fighting Islamism …

… rather than fostering it.

And of course, we must do as much as we can to promote economic development and

political freedom throughout the Islamic world and beyond …

… so that young people there can face the future with hope …

… instead of the despair in which extremism thrives.

This will not happen overnight …

… but the Organisation for Democracy & Freedom in Syria is committed to making helping

that happen …

… as is the Iman Foundation, which I founded to promote dialogue, challenge extremism and

bring change across the world …

… and I believe that organisations like the World Affairs Councils of America also have a vital role to play in this process.

The first step in bringing peace to Syria …

… and consequently greater security to the whole world …

… is to recognise the severity of the crisis …

… and its inherently international character.

Then we can focus on the underlying problem of Islamic extremism …

… and resolve to tackle it with renewed vigour …

… while holding to liberal and democratic values.

Because only they will ultimately secure our national security.

Thank you.

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